The Orioles used small ball to battle back and claim a one run lead Jeff Keppinger Jersey , but they fell victim to the long ball once again."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Commentary & AnalysisOrioles ProspectsOrioles Game RecapsOrioles News and RumorsCamdencastOrioles Game RecapsOrioles done in by another three-run homer, fall 6-4 to YankeesNew,18commentsThe Orioles used small ball to battle back and claim a one run lead, but they fell victim to the long ball once again. EDTShareTweetShareShareOrioles done in by another three-run homer, fall 6-4 to YankeesTommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsThe Orioles used a wild seventh inning to flip a one-run deficit to a one run lead, and Baltimore appeared to be on its way to evening the series. But that all changed with one swing of the bat.With two on and two out, reliever Miguel Castro hung an absolute gift of a slider to Clint Frazier. Frazier didn’t miss, and drove the the ball for a no doubt, three-run home run. Neither team would score again, and the Orioles fell to the Yankees 6-4 at Camden Yards. The Yankees nearly broke things open in the top of the sixth. Nate Karns plunked Gary Sanchez to start the inning, and Gleyber Torres followed with a single. DJ LeMahieu singled to load the bases, and chased Karns from the game. With Paul Fry on the mound, Orioles catcher Pedro Severino used a snap throw to third to pick off Sanchez. Sanchez did not dive when he retreated back to the base, and his foot slipped off the bag while Hanser Alberto held the tag. Fry struck out Frazier, and forced Gio Urshela to ground out and end the threat. Fry stayed on in the seventh and sent the Yankees down in order for the first time tonight.After nearly seeing the game slip out of reach in the sixth, the Orioles battled back in the bottom of the seventh. Cedric Mullins reached when a slider bounced off his toe. Jonathan Villar stepped up, and Mullins broke for second. The hit and run worked perfectly, and the Orioles had runners on the corners before an out was recorded. The Yankees called for relief pitcher Adam Ottavino, and the Orioles responded with a pinch hitter. That hitter had not recorded a hit in his last 37 plate appearances. Chris Davis bounced a ground ball to first, but Greg Bird bobbled the ball and his throw home came too late. Somehow, sending Chris Davis to the plate benefited the Orioles, and the game was all square at three.The small ball theme continued throughout the inning. The Orioles sent Rio Ruiz to pinch hit, and Villar broke for third. Villar managed to beat the tag http://www.whitesoxfanproshop.com/authentic-paul-konerko-jersey , and brought the go-ahead run only 90 feet away. Ruiz blasted a fly ball to the warning track in center field, and Villar scored with ease. The stolen base made the difference, and Baltimore held a 4-3 advantage. Fry stayed out to pick up the first out of the eighth, but manager Brandon Hyde summoned Miguel Castro to face Sanchez. The Yankee catcher popped out, but Castro walked Torres on four pitches. LeMahieu singled to right field and Frazier stepped in representing the go-ahead run. Castro just missed the strike zone with several pitches in the inning, but his slider to Frazier caught far too much of the plate. After the homer, Castro struck out Urshela to end the inning, but the damage had been done. Baltimore attempted a rally in the bottom half of the eighth. Alberto worked a walk to get things started, and Mullins took a 94 MPH fastball to the jersey to put the tying-run aboard. The inning appeared to end when Jonathan Villar bounced a ball up the middle, and Mullins was called out at second base. After further review, Mullins was ruled safe, and the bases were loaded for Davis.Davis quickly fell behind 0-2 before working the count even. He laced a hard-hit ground ball to first base to end the inning. I can’t imagine a better time to bust out of a slump than with the bases loaded against the Yankees, but apparently Davis is saving his first hit of the season for an even better moment. The Yankees summoned flame thrower Aroldis Chapman to close out the game. Pinch hitter Jes煤s Sucre lined a one-out base hit to left field, but the Orioles couldn’t handle the heat. Baltimore fell to 4-4 on the young season, and officially lost its first series of the year. Aaron Judge homered in his first two at bats for New York. He rocked a solo shot 412 feet to dead center in the top of the first, and a two-run bomb that traveled 418 feet in the third. Orioles starter Dylan Bundy through 85 pitches in only 3.2 innings, and was pulled after the second home run by Judge. The long-ball continued to plague Bundy, and you can’t help but expect more trouble moving forward. At some point, it’s no longer surprising that a fly ball pitcher continues to struggle at a hitters park in the AL East. Trey Mancini got the Orioles on the board with a home run in the bottom of the first. Mancini finished 2-5, and was the only Oriole with multiple hits. Dwight Smith Jr. recorded a hit for a career-high eighth straight game. This loss feels somewhat significant for Baltimore. They were done in by a three-run homer for the second consecutive game, and the home crowd watched the club squander another lead. It’s entirely possible that the Orioles have played their last game above .500. No one expected Baltimore to compete this year, but hopefully they can stave off the inevitable a little longer tomorrow afternoon in the series finale. Another of the projection systems has come out with its expectations for the D-backs in 2018." for Oxford Fashion StudioI had managed completed to miss the fact that Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections had come out with their figures for the 2019 D-backs. In my defense, we were largely recovering from the SnakePitette’s wedding reception over the weekend [her actual wedding having taken place two years ago - it’s a long story]. Since then James Shields Jersey , Mrs. SnakePit has come down with the same lurgy I had previously, and I’ve been writing a 1,500-word essay on Richard Avedon’s iconic eighties photograph of Nastassja Kinski and a snake. So the D-backs haven’t exactly been on the radar this week, and I didn’t realize ZIPS were out until BenSharp mentioned it in SnakeZIPS is most bearish. It makes sense that Kelly is going to be problematic in terms of projections, because of his lack of major-league - or even minor-league - experience. He hasn’t pitched at all on the North American continent since 2014, and few pitchers have previously gone from Korea to the MLB, so there are few comparables available. Looking at the expected innings is also interesting [though again, ZWAR is pro-rated to match Jack’s workload]. ZIPS has Kelly down to throw almost fifty innings more than Jack, while Taijuan Walker and Matt Andriese are also projected for significantly higher workloads. I’m not certain if ZIPS “knows” that Walker had Tommy John surgery, or if this is purely based off his previous innings totals. It has him starting 21 games, which would require Taijuan to come back about the end of May, and pitch every fifth contest thereafter. Since he underwent the procedure on April 25th this year, that should probably be considered unlikely, although not quite impossible. HittersOne slight caveat before we get into these: ZIPS doesn’t specify plate appearances directly. I’ve simply added together at-bats and walks: this omits HBP, sacrifice hits and flies, or the times they reached on defensive interference. However, in most cases, that won’t be a significant difference. [Fortunately for this scenario, the gurgling vortex for baseballs which was Jon Jay, is probably not going to be on the Diamondbacks this season...]ZIPS 2019 D-backs hittersHittersPAWARZIPSZPAZWARHittersPAWARZIPSZPAZWARThis is slightly less optimistic than Jack, coming in at a total of about half a win less, once we adjust for playing time. That last is especially important here, because ZIPS appears to be having a bit of a laff http://www.whitesoxfanproshop.com/authentic-paul-konerko-jersey , projecting that next year Yasmany Tomas will get - and you might want to sit down, or at least hold your sides in case they split - four hundred at-bats. Which would be... four hundred more than Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo gave him in 2018. Given ZIPS has him being worth half a win below replacement level, #ImWithJack. If Tomas gets 400 AB for the 2019 D-backs, something has either gone terribly wrong for everyone else in our outfield, or incredibly right for Yasmany. Hopefully the latter, but...Most of the other projections come in within half a win of Jack’s: Christian Walker is viewed in a negative light of that amount by ZIPS, while it reckons Socrates Brito is rather better than replacement level by the same amount. Though, again, 489 PA for Brito would probably require the team bus to make an unscheduled diversion to the bottom of the Grand Canyon on Opening Day. [Rule 29 draft, anyone?] Putting the two sets together, we get a total of 33.7 WAR for the team, and with replacement level set at 47.5 wins, the projection is 81.2 wins for the 2019 Diamondbacks, less than a win below the 82 wins actually recorded this season. To me, that feels surprisingly high, considering the team lost their best pitcher (Patrick Corbin) and position player (Paul Goldschmidt) from the last campaign. But it indicates that the players received for Goldschmidt may turn out, in combination, to be worth something close to his value. Gloomy predictions of a 100-loss season might turn out to be unduly pessimistic, based on the projections to this point.